Official Latvia election results are not yet published after Saturday’s vote for the 100-seat Saeima. An exit poll puts Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’s United List first on about 35.6%, while turnout stands at 50.81%, the lowest recorded for a Latvian parliamentary election. The Central Election Commission must confirm final results by 12 October 2026.
Latvia is a European Union and NATO member of about 1.5 million eligible voters, and every figure below applies to that national vote alone. Polling stations closed at 20:00 local time on 3 October 2026; counting was still under way as this was written.
What Is Confirmed and What Is Only Projected
The distinction matters because the two sets of numbers come from different places. One is an official count in progress; the other is a survey of voters leaving polling stations.
| Status | Figure or finding |
|---|---|
| Official, from the Central Election Commission | Turnout of 50.81%, about 790,000 voters, based on data from 995 of 1,059 polling stations as of 21:47 local time on 3 October 2026 |
| Projected, from an exit poll only | Every party vote share below, and the finding that six lists would enter the Saeima |
| Not yet known | Official vote totals, the allocation of the 100 seats, whether the Union of Greens and Farmers clears the threshold, and which parties will form a government |
No party had been declared the winner of a seat at the time of writing. The exit poll is a projection, and Latvia’s public broadcaster cautioned in publishing it that “the exit poll is not always a reliable indicator of the ultimate composition of the next Saeima”.
What the Exit Poll Projects
The poll was produced by the research firm SKDS with Rīga Stradiņš University and the LETA newswire, and published at 20:15 local time, immediately after voting closed. International agencies carrying the LETA figure gave the United List 35.6%; the broadcaster’s own write-up rounded it to 35%.
| Party list | Projected share |
|---|---|
| United List (AS) | About 35.6% |
| Latvia First (LPV) | 11.3% |
| The Progressives (P) | 11.1% |
| Sovereign Power / Young Latvians (SV/J) | 10.8% |
| National Alliance (NA) | 8.7% |
| New Unity (JV) | 6.7% |
| Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) | 3.7% |
If the projection held, the United List would take more of the vote than the next three lists combined. In the 2022 election it won 100,631 votes, or 11.01%, and 15 seats, so the exit poll implies a tripling of its share. That comparison rests on a projected figure against a final one.
Latvian public media described Latvia First as an overtly Trumpist party and the Sovereign Power alliance as populist and Russia-friendly; those are the broadcaster’s characterisations rather than the parties’ own.
Turnout Was the Lowest in Saeima History
The turnout figure is the firmest number of the night, and it runs against expectations. Around 790,000 people voted, 50.81% of the electorate.
| Election | Turnout |
|---|---|
| 2026, 15th Saeima | 50.81% (preliminary, 995 of 1,059 stations) |
| 2022, 14th Saeima | 59% |
| 2018, 13th Saeima | 54.6% |
Expectations had pointed the other way. More than 11% of the electorate voted during five days of advance polling, which had been read as a sign that the 2022 figure of 59% would be passed. Election day itself did not follow.
Latvian public media noted that this was also the warmest election day in Latvian history, but discounted the weather as an explanation given how much early voting had been available, and raised instead the possibility that campaign coverage “appear to have engaged few people other than the politicians appearing on them”.
A Governing Party Sits on the 5% Cliff
A list must win at least 5% of all votes cast to take any Saeima seats. The exit poll puts the Union of Greens and Farmers at 3.7% — below that line.
The party is a member of the outgoing four-party coalition, alongside the United List, New Unity and the National Alliance, which governed under Kulbergs after the Saeima approved his cabinet on 28 May 2026 by 66 votes to 25. On the projection, two of those partners return and one is removed from parliament altogether.
Because the threshold redistributes the votes of excluded lists among those that qualify, a party sitting near 5% changes the seat maths for everyone else. Whether the Union of Greens and Farmers is above or below it is unresolved until the official count is published.
How the Seats and the Timetable Work
The 100 seats are filled from five electoral districts, and the schedule after the vote is fixed in law rather than by the parties.
- Riga: 38 seats.
- Vidzeme: 26 seats.
- Zemgale: 13 seats.
- Latgale: 12 seats.
- Kurzeme: 11 seats.
Some 1,428 candidates stood across 14 party lists. The Central Election Commission must confirm the official results by 12 October 2026, and the newly elected 15th Saeima holds its first sitting on 3 November 2026.
What Coalition Talks Still Have to Settle
On the exit poll’s own numbers the United List would fall well short of the 51 seats needed for a majority, so a coalition would be required whatever the final count shows. Nothing about its shape is settled.
No party had announced a coalition preference at the time of writing, and no negotiations had been reported as opened. Readus247 has covered comparable post-election arithmetic elsewhere this year, including Morocco’s incoming prime minister needing a further 101 seats, and earlier European votes first reported from projections, including the Swedish election exit polls and Berlin’s state election results.
The vote was held against what international coverage described as a backdrop of a perceived threat from Russia and pressure on living costs. Latvia’s public broadcaster reported that feared election-day disruption from Russia or Belarus did not materialise.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are the Latvia Election Results Final?
No. At the time of writing no official vote totals or seat allocations had been published. The Central Election Commission must confirm official results by 12 October 2026, and the figures circulating on election night come from an exit poll.
Who Led the Latvian Election?
The exit poll produced by SKDS with Rīga Stradiņš University and LETA put Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’s United List first on about 35.6%. That is a projection, not a count, and the broadcaster publishing it warned exit polls have not always predicted the Saeima’s composition.
What Was the Turnout?
Turnout was 50.81%, about 790,000 voters, on Central Election Commission data from 995 of 1,059 polling stations at 21:47 local time on 3 October 2026. That is the lowest recorded for a Saeima election, below 59% in 2022 and 54.6% in 2018.
Which Parties Are Projected to Win Seats?
The exit poll projects six lists above the 5% threshold: the United List, Latvia First, the Progressives, Sovereign Power/Young Latvians, the National Alliance and New Unity. The Union of Greens and Farmers, a party in the outgoing coalition, is projected at 3.7%, below the threshold.
When Does the New Latvian Parliament Meet?
The 15th Saeima holds its first sitting on 3 November 2026. Official results are due to be confirmed by 12 October 2026, leaving about three weeks for coalition talks before parliament convenes.
How Many Seats Are Needed for a Majority?
Fifty-one of the Saeima’s 100 seats. On the exit poll’s projected shares the United List would not reach that alone, so a coalition would be needed regardless of the final official count.
