Forget basketball. The NFL is America’s favorite sport. The NFL is a heavy hitter among bettors and boasts a larger market share than other sports. Everyone bets on the NFL. Even your barber bets on the NFL.
However, your barber does not win as often, and you may not. Betting on the NFL is not always easy, and there is no magic crystal ball that gets the best right every time. However, with proven strategies and tips, you can increase your chances of winning and bankrolling. Let us show you how not to lose a bet every time you wager on the NFL.
Bet with Your Head (Not Your Heart)
Yes, you may be a fan of Tom Brady, the Rams, or the Green Packers. However, kindly leave your fan status at the betting doorstep. In NFL betting, data is your friend. Pit the two teams against each other and determine who has the better current form, standings in the league, and the number of touchdowns or fouls.
Once you have all the essential data, you can filter out the noise and get value bets. You may make 1–5 bets on the NFL weekly. It is a minute number, but you can get more bang for your buck using the following strategy.
Specialize in NFL Betting
There are different money lines in the NFL. Straight wins or parlays are the bets you should avoid unless you have excellent data and maybe insider information on the team’s status and performance.
Consider specializing in prop bets. Betting under is almost always a surety of winning. However, you can specialize in other props, such as who will have the most touchdowns, passing yards, and more. The overall outcome of the game does not affect prop bets, making it all the more exciting and easier to master.
The drawback to specializing in the prop market is there are restrictions the more you beat the market. It is an excellent way to increase your bankroll as you start out.
Monitor the Context of the Trends
A good gambler knows that a team hitting over 70 points against a weak defense does not mean the former’s offense is the best in the league. While watching trends, consider the context of the game before you wager.
Maybe there was a defensive error, or the team had their star quarterback out. You need to consider such instances before betting. Since you do not have all the time in the world, consider using game analysis sites with all the contextual analysis.
Bet on Teasers
You can bet on NFL teases and win, provided you overcome the hurdle rate. Most bookies do not offer the 6-point teaser, but you can still win on other teasers, especially if the underdog can convert. The recent teasers are at -120 odds meaning you still have an edge on the 3 and 7.
The hurdle rate for -130 is 75.2%. Never consider the -130 odds. Your maximum should be -120 with a 73.9% hurdle rate.
Be Wary of Time Zones and Home Advantage
Statistically, teams in the upper echelon of the NFL play better at home. However, some teams are outliers and have a poorer record at home than away and vice versa. Where the game is being played is equally important as asking, where can I bet on the Super bowl. You need to know who has the advantage and who performs better where.
Time zones are also an issue. West coast teams usually have lesser difficulty overcoming time change when heading to the east coast, but the east coast teams have a 3-hour disadvantage when playing on the Pacific coast.
Knowing where and when the teams will play is crucial in choosing the wager and wager amount. Roll in the team’s form with the time and venue changes, and you will increase your odds of winning at any bets.
Be Wary of Divisional Matchups
Teams that play each other more than once per season usually have different results, and some may shock you. The underdog team usually registers a surprise win, especially on the back of the superior team flying high.
Rivalries and divisional matchup bets should be avoided. Only bet on them if you have good information on the player availability and the team’s stats. Even though a team may appear superior on paper, the weaker team may hammer it. There is a reason why the bookies put -800 on a team. Only bet on the underdog if you believe it is their time to upset the high-flying team.
Conclusion
NFL betting offers multiple options to wager and win. However, winning is not always guaranteed, nor does it come easy. You have to dig in and befriend data. The more information you have, the better. Use our strategies to pick your NFL wagers and enjoy wagering on Sundays as most NFL bettors do.
