The Brazil election result gives President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva about 51.8% of valid votes in the 25 October 2026 runoff, against 48.2% for Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, according to the Superior Electoral Court count. Bolsonaro has refused to concede and says he will seek annulment. No court has ordered a recount.
The Count, and Why Reported Percentages Differ
Lula’s margin is about 4.4 million votes, and every published reading puts him ahead by between 3.5 and 3.6 percentage points. The second decimal place differs between outlets because each one published at a different moment in the count.
| Reading | Lula | Flavio Bolsonaro | Reported by |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% of polling stations | 51.79% | 48.21% | Rio Times, from the Superior Electoral Court tally |
| 99.98% counted | 51.78% | 48.22% | Rio Times |
| Rounded wire figure | 51.8% | 48.2% | Reuters, Al Jazeera |
| Early reading | 51.76% | 48.24% | Anadolu Agency |
The percentages are shares of valid votes, which exclude blank and spoiled ballots, so they are not shares of everyone who turned out. One tally based on the court’s count recorded 64,256,232 votes for Lula and 59,826,041 for Bolsonaro.
Lula is the first Brazilian presidential candidate to win a runoff after trailing in the first round since the two-round system began in 1989. In the first round on 4 October 2026, Bolsonaro led with about 47% to Lula’s 45%, a gap of some 2.2 million votes.
Flavio Bolsonaro’s Objection in His Own Words
Bolsonaro, a sitting senator and a son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, spoke to supporters after the electoral court declared Lula the winner. He did not concede.
He said his lawyers would act, telling supporters, “We will engage our legal team and seek to have these elections annulled.” He also said he would not accept that “the rules of the game have been arbitrarily changed”.
His objection is procedural rather than an allegation of vote fraud. He has not claimed that ballots were miscounted or that the electronic voting machines were compromised.
One Court Extended Voting, a Different Court Declared the Result
Two separate courts are involved, and they are easy to confuse. Brazil has a dedicated electoral judiciary alongside its general supreme court.
- Superior Electoral Court (TSE): The body that administers elections and publishes the count. It is the court that declared Lula the winner and that will certify the result.
- Federal Supreme Court (STF): Brazil’s highest general court. Justice Cristiano Zanin of the STF issued the order that extended voting hours nationwide.
Zanin’s order moved the national close of polling to 7pm Brasilia time. Anadolu Agency reports it responded to emergency petitions citing transport blockades and severe weather. A separate account in the Rio Times says the order came at the request of Lula’s coalition and was published shortly after polls had been due to shut at 5pm. Those two characterisations have not been reconciled, and the text of the order has not been independently published in English.
Bolsonaro has noted that Zanin was Lula’s personal defence lawyer before joining the Supreme Court. That is accurate as biography; it is not, by itself, a finding of improper conduct.
What Would Have to Be Proved to Annul the Vote
A Brazilian court would have to find an illegality serious enough to have changed who won. That is a deliberately high bar, and the size of Lula’s lead is the central obstacle.
An annulment would need to account for a gap of roughly 4.4 million votes. Legal analysts quoted in Brazilian and international coverage describe the prospect as very unlikely, and as of 27 October 2026 no filing had been confirmed and no court had accepted a challenge, ordered a recount or suspended the result.
Rachel Ziemba, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, told Al Jazeera that “the scale of the victory suggests that the result will stand”.
How Brazilian Markets Moved on 26 October
Brazilian assets fell sharply on Monday 26 October 2026, the first trading day after the vote, because investors had positioned for a Bolsonaro win. Reported figures vary by outlet and by the moment of measurement.
- Brazilian real: Fell 12% against the US dollar in spot trading, on Al Jazeera’s reading.
- Bovespa index: Fell 10% from the previous close, which triggered a circuit breaker halting trading for 30 minutes. Index futures fell nearly 15%.
- Wider estimates: Several outlets reported intraday falls of 14% to 17%, and Reuters described the session as the largest daily percentage decline since 1998.
- Starting point: Shares had closed the previous Friday almost 7% above their pre-first-round level, and the real was nearly 5% stronger.
A single-day move is not a forecast, and these are readings for 26 October 2026 only. Brazil’s public debt already exceeds 82% of gross domestic product, and Lula’s team has set out an aim of a budget surplus of about 1.3% of GDP by 2030 without publishing the detail of how it would be reached.
The Dates Between Now and the Inauguration
| Date | What is due |
|---|---|
| 25 October 2026 | Runoff held; count completed the same night |
| December 2026 | Certification of the result by the electoral court. The Rio Times reports the 2026 calendar sets 18 December as the deadline; the court’s own calendar could not be verified for this report |
| 5 January 2027 | Inauguration, a date fixed by Constitutional Amendment 111 of 2021 |
Agreed, Claimed and Unverified
This is a contested result, so the three categories are worth separating.
- Agreed: Lula finished ahead by about 3.6 percentage points on the electoral court’s count; Bolsonaro has not conceded; voting hours were extended nationwide by a Supreme Court order; the inauguration is set for 5 January 2027.
- Claimed by one side: That the extension was arbitrary and warrants annulment. This is Bolsonaro’s position, and he has not alleged miscounting.
- Unverified at the time of writing: Whether a formal annulment petition has been filed; the precise terms of and stated reason for Zanin’s order; whether the electoral court has completed its formal proclamation, which sources describe inconsistently; and the exact certification deadline.
The Superior Electoral Court’s own results portal could not be read for this report, so the figures above are as published by major news organisations citing that court’s count.
Frequently Asked Questions
What Is the Brazil Election Result?
On the Superior Electoral Court’s count of the 25 October 2026 runoff, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva took about 51.8% of valid votes and Flavio Bolsonaro about 48.2%, a margin of roughly 4.4 million votes.
Which Bolsonaro Lost the Runoff?
Flavio Bolsonaro, a serving senator and a son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Jair Bolsonaro was not a candidate in the 2026 runoff.
Has a Recount Been Ordered in Brazil?
No. As of 27 October 2026 no court had ordered a recount. Flavio Bolsonaro has said he will seek annulment of the runoff, which is a different remedy from a recount.
Can the Brazil Election Result Still Be Overturned?
A court would have to find an illegality serious enough to have changed the outcome, across a gap of about 4.4 million votes. No court had accepted such a challenge as of 27 October 2026, and legal analysts quoted in coverage of the case describe success as very unlikely.
When Does Lula Take Office?
On 5 January 2027, a date set by Constitutional Amendment 111 of 2021. Certification by the electoral court comes first, in December 2026.
